Published 6/28/22 online here.
This enormous (~11.3 million infections), striking report using national U.K. data, and avoiding methodologically unsound & misleading test-negative case-control “analyses,” produced these key (verbatim) findings:
1) “no discernable (covid-19) vaccine effectiveness to prevent infections among the third dose ≥18 years of age population since December 20, 2021 during the initial part of the Omicron variant surge in UK”
2)“increased SARS CoV2 cases in the vaccinated population (including the third dose) among over 18 years of age during the Omicron variant surge, which were “associated with significantly hospitalizations and deaths,”
3) “decreasing cases in unvaccinated population associated with decreased hospitalizations and deaths”
The authors concluded, appositely:
1) “In the absence of vaccine effectiveness to prevent COVID-19 infections, it is scientifically suboptimal to project good vaccine effectiveness for hospitalizations and deaths without adjusting the data for all known variables (published by UK health agencies in their regular weekly reports) that can independently affect these outcomes.
2) This practice of unadjusted and unvalidated projections of good vaccine effectiveness for the hospitalizations and deaths (when cases are increasing in vaccinated than unvaccinated without vaccine effectiveness) may create a false sense of security and harm the vaccinated population…This is more relevant in the view of studies showing decreased vaccine effectiveness among the elderly population which is the same age group that is at the highest risk for increased hospitalizations and deaths.”
3) “The decreased cases among the unvaccinated population during the Omicron variant surge is probably due to protection from their prior natural infections that was already shown to give lasting immunity which need further study.”
The key Tables on hospitalizations and deaths, truncated to include just the omicron period, are pasted below:
